Super-vulcanul Campi Flegrei este foarte aproape să erupă din nou

[zod 1628]

Super-vulcanul Campi Flegrei este foarte aproape să erupă din nou

Adrian Nicolae • HotNews.ro

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Despre o erupție a super-vulcanului Campi Flegrei s-a tot vorbit în ultimele decenii, pe măsură ce acesta a dat tot mai multe semne de activitate. În fapt, semnele au apărut încă din anii `50 ai secolului trecut, însă lucrurile par să se accelereze în ultimul timp, după cum ne anunță un grup de vulcanologi italieni și britanici, într-un studiu publicat în revista Communications Earth & Environment.

emisii de gaze sulfuroase la Campi FlegreiFoto: David Gee 4 / Alamy / Alamy / Profimedia

Dacă nu știați, cea mai puternică erupție a super-vulcanului amintit a avut loc acum circa 40.000 de ani. Se estimează că ar fi atins atunci indicele VEI 7 (volcanic explosivity index ), dintr-un maxim de 8, pe scala intensității unei erupții vulcanice. S-a tot speculat că super-erupția amintită, dublată de o alta de mai mică intensitate din Caucaz, ar fi fost cauza presupusei dispariții a populațiilor umane din Europa acelor vremuri (Homo neanderthalensis și Homo sapiens).

În fapt, ar fi reprezentat factorulul decisiv în dispariția neanderthalienilor, și repopularea Europei cu reprezentanți ai speciei H. sapiens din Africa, Asia și Orientul Mijlociu, bazine demografice care ar fi fost doar parțial afectate de super-erupția Campi Flegrei și de efectele devastatoare ale acesteia asupra climei. Trebuie menționat totuși că astfel de ipoteze cu privire la dispariția omului de neanderthal nu sunt general acceptate de către comunitatea științifică. Important este însă că există un acord unanim asupra intensității erupției amintite.

Alte două erupții majore s-au petrecut acum 35.000, respectiv 12.000 de ani, fapt dovedit de două caldere concentrice situate în apropiere de Napoli, în zona în care acum se află orașul Pozzuoli și golful adiacent acestuia. Ultima erupție, de mai mică intensitate, a fost documentată în anul 1538.

Chiar dacă zeci de mii de cutremure au fost înregistrate în ultimii 70 de ani, numărul acestora a crescut vertiginos în ultima perioadă, anunță specialiștii în studiul amintit. Numai luna trecută au fost semnalate peste 600, un record al numărului de seisme petrecute într-o singură lună. De asemenea, în ultimii zece ani, orașul Pozzuoli s-a înălțat cu cel puțin 10 centimetri pe an. Mai mult, din 1950 și până în prezent, orașul de coastă s-a ridicat cu aproape patru metri.

Autorii studiului recunosc că datele lor permit doar speculații, bazate pe ceea ce știm despre semnele care preced o erupție vulcanică. Despre cele care preced super-erupții nu știe nimeni cum se manifestă, căci nimeni nu a văzut un super-vulcan și nici nu a lăsat date despre vreunul.

Vulcanologii amintiți afirmă că posibilitatea unei super-erupții este totuși una redusă. Mai degrabă, se așteaptă la o erupție de mai mică intensitate dar, indiferent de intensitatea ei, cele circa 360.000 de persoane care locuiesc în zonă rămân în continuare într-un pericol real. O altă variantă ar fi ca la Campi Flegrei lucrurile să se liniștească în timp, însă o astfel de ipoteză pare să fie negată de tiparul cutremurelor din zonă.

Dacă, până în 2020, acestea păreau că se produc pe fondul deplasării scoarței terestre și a ridicării acesteia, după această dată tiparul pare să indice mai degrabă o fracturare a crustei. Nici măcar o reducere a fenomenelor de acolo (seisme, emisii de gaze și elevația crustei) nu este de natură să îi liniștească pe specialiști. Aceștia amintesc cazul erupției vulcanului Rabaul din Papua Noua Guinee, în 1994, atunci când fenomenele premergătoare se reduseseră la doar 10% din ceea ce fusese înregistrat cu un deceniu mai devreme, iar lucrurile păreau să revină la normal.

https://science.hotnews.ro/stiri-terra-26325021-super-vulcanul-campi-flegrei-este-foarte-aproape-erupa-din-nou.htm

In urma cu 2000 de ani, Vezuviul a distrus in intregime orasul Pompei. Astazi insa, un vulcan mult mai mare si mai periculos pandeste de cealalta parte a orasului italian Napoli. Daca ar erupe, Campi Flegrei ar putea sterge de pe harta intreaga Europa.

PS: Daca acest super-vulcan va erupe gigantic, atunci emisfera nordica va fi invaluita intr-o pacla groasa de cenusa si fum toxic timp de decenii ori chiar secole intregi pustiind totul in cale, iar sub aceasta negura va domni o iarna continua timp de secole intregi. 

[The Unknown 15044]

Nu mi-e frica de acest Vulcan desi suna sperietor eventualitatea ca s-ar erupe.   Garantez ca deja s-au luat masuri sa nu fie atat de distrugator, unde s-ar ascunde politicienii si copiii lor printi si printisoare sa-si cheltuie sumele colosale sterpelite usor de unde era mai mult.   Nimeni nu vrea sa dea ieftin viata!!!

 

 

Editat Iunie 13, 2023 de The Unknown

[zod 1628]

La 13.06.2023 la 5:00, The Unknown a spus:

Nu mi-e frica de acest Vulcan desi suna sperietor eventualitatea ca s-ar erupe.   Garantez ca deja s-au luat masuri sa nu fie atat de distrugator, unde s-ar ascunde politicienii si copiii lor printi si printisoare sa-si cheltuie sumele colosale sterpelite usor de unde era mai mult.   Nimeni nu vrea sa dea ieftin viata!!

Este echivalentul european al Yellowstone, deci... 

Cat despre oameni, singura lor sansa ar fi o migratie totala spre sud, ceea ce ar insemna o supra-recolonizare a Africii de catre europeni si indieni si a Australiei, Tasmaniei, Papua, Indoneziei si Noii Zeelande de catre indo-chinezi. 

Nord-americanii ar cobora in America de sud. 

[The Unknown 15044]

Mi-a placut Georgafia in scoala si am stiut toate denumirile ce s-au cerut si erau in carti, dar de acest Vulcan aud pentru prima oara.  

Sa fie doar de speriat Ciorii din Ciresi???   Si despre Transilvania inconjurat de Carpati se presupune acelas lucru ca este o CALDARE precum cel din Yellowstone.  

In munti in Harghita mereu fumega de cand ma stiu de un secol,  iar partea unde nu sint munti, a colapsat la ultimul mare evenimet si a curs lava pe actuala Ungaria, Austria si alte teritorii.

Iar ultima noutate de intimidare este  "Leader of Belarus says he wouldn't hesitate to use Russian nuclear weapons to repel aggression"

Asta parca s-ar putea intampla mai repede decat explodarea vulcanelor adormite care la un semn puternic, se trezesc toti deodata sa distruga Planeta!!!

Ma pui pe drumuri sa dau o fuga in Mexico sa-mi cumpar "loc sigur" din calea vulcanului.   Presupun ca s-ar intampla nenorocirea, nu stiu daca as avea timp sa ajung pana la granita asa de aglomerat ar fi caile care duc spre Sud.  Imaginez ca nu s-ar mai tine cont de nimic, controale de acte si de masini, dar acolo n-ar ezita niste criminali sa atace pe cine cred ei, chiar in vazul tuturor ca nimeni n-ar ajuta, doar sa scape cu viata in Lumea Noua.   

Sotul avea un coleg de munca de origini mexicane si cat timp au lucrat, eram in relatii foarte bune.   Recent l-a sunat ca s-au mutat inapoi la anii de pensionare sa aibe unde primii restul familiei de sarbatorile lor si abia voia sa vorbeasca cu noi si clar ne-a spus sa nu credem ca le putem vizita nici macar in fata casei, desi nu asta a fost intrebarea.   

Sotul voia sa-i ceara un pic de ajutor sa ne dea numele unui Hotel unde se vorbeste si engleza, ca voia sa mergem putin pe acolo sa ne uitam in jur si sa ne intalnim si cu ei!!! 

Ce am vazut si la granita cu El Paso, m-a ingrozit.   Filmele western sint versiunea din basme.   Eram doar pe teritoriu American si conduceam langa Rio Grande care acolo este foarte ingust, pot sa trec si eu prin apa desi nu stiu sa inot.   

Ni se recomanda la TV ca in diferite tari din America de Sud un pensionar poate trai regeste din 3000 de dolari americani pe luna si ei ne ajuta cu transferul banilor :-)))   

Aici se poate trai din mult mai putin unde cunoastem limba, avem cativa prieteni, vecini si copiii, oare de ce m-as duce acolo.   Nu ma atrage NIMIC spre Sud, prefer Alaska.

[zod 1628]

Throughout our planet’s history, massive volcanic eruptions have devastated life. Could one bring an end to human civilisation?

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In the Bay of Naples, Europe's most notorious giant is showing signs of reawakening from its long slumber.

Campi Flegrei, a name that aptly translates as "burning fields", is a supervolcano. It consists of a vast and complex network of underground chambers that formed hundreds of thousands of years ago, stretching from the outskirts of Naples to underneath the Mediterranean Sea. About half a million people live in Campi Flegrei's seven-mile-long caldera, which was formed by vast eruptions 200,000, 39,000, 35,000 and 12,000 years ago.

The past 500 years have been fairly peaceful ones for Campi Flegrei. There have been no eruptions at all since 1538, and that was a comparatively small event that resulted in the formation of the "New Mountain", Monte Nuovo. But recent events suggest that this period of quiescence may be coming to an end.

Read more on the plans to drill into the Campi Flegrei volcano

The volcano that scientists can't find

The terrifying tsumani that hit Britain

An acceleration of processes causing deformation and heating within the caldera saw the Italian government raise the volcano's threat level in December 2016. Fears are growing that magma deep inside Campi Flegrei could be reaching the "critical degassing pressure", where a sudden large-scale release of volcanic gases could abruptly inject heat into surrounding hydrothermal fluids and rocks. When this happens on a significant scale, it can cause catastrophic rock failure within the volcano, triggering an eruption. In line with this, a study published in May 2017 found evidence that the supervolcano has been building towards an eruption for decades.

But the difficult question is not if, but when, and just how big an event this would be.

The Bay of Naples was formed thanks to several enormous volcanic explosions (Credit: iStock)

"Campi Flegrei is in a critical state," says Antonio Costa of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in Bologna, who is part of a team monitoring the supervolcano. "In probabilistic terms, we expect something called a 'violent Strombolian eruption'. This is relatively small-scale to a supereruption. However, it's not easy to say if there will definitely be an eruption in the coming years. Campi Flegrei has not erupted during the timescale that it's been under observation, so we don't know entirely what to expect."

A violent Strombolian eruption would blast molten rock and volcanic gases a few thousand feet into the atmosphere. It would surely be a major event, potentially requiring the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people. But in the context of Campi Flegrei's past, it would be minor.

The volcano's most notorious supereruption was the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption, which occurred some 39,000 years ago. It punched an estimated 300 cubic kilometres of molten rock 70km up into the stratosphere, along with an estimated 450,000 tons of sulphur dioxide. The ash cloud was carried as far as central Russia, some 2,000km away.

The eruption occurred at a time when much of Europe was already going through a lengthy glacial period, and the consequences are thought to have devastated much of the continent for centuries.

The huge quantity of sulphur dioxide released would have created a volcanic winter

Entire swathes of land, including Italy, the Mediterranean coast and the entirety of eastern Europe, were left covered in up to 20cm of ash. This would have destroyed vegetation and created a vast desert. Much of Russia was immersed in 5cm of ash, enough to disrupt plant life for decades or more.

"We know from chemical analysis that the ash contained fluorine, which has a strong impact on vegetation, and it would have produced a disease called fluorosis in animals," Costa says. "This would have had a knock-on impact on humans."

In addition, the huge quantity of sulphur dioxide released would have created a volcanic winter. Sulphur dioxide backscatters the Sun's radiation in the upper atmosphere, preventing it from reaching the ground. The 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption, one of the biggest of the 20th Century, did exactly this, temporarily lowering the global temperature by around 0.6C. But the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption may have had a far greater impact, with some scientists estimating that it decreased temperatures in Europe by as much as 4C, drastically altering the climate for many years.

The timing of this huge eruption is suspicious, because many archaeologists believe that 39,000 years ago is roughly when our cousins the Neanderthals died out in Europe. It has long been speculated that the eruption triggered extreme environmental conditions across Europe, contributing to the extinction of the Neanderthals, at least in some regions.

However, while the impact on the Neanderthals was surely significant, many scientists now believe it is unlikely that this single event was cataclysmic enough to wipe them out. Archaeological evidence suggests that Neanderthals persisted in parts of western Europe for some 10,000 years after the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption. This may be because of the way the ash dispersed.

"After the eruption, Neanderthal archaeological sites are found only in France and Spain," Costa says. "This is probably because these two areas were not affected by the eruption at all, because the wind was blowing towards the east."

Much of eastern Europe was covered in a layer of ash from the eruptions (Credit: iStock)

There is even an argument that the eruption could have benefited the Neanderthals, by delaying the arrival in Europe of modern humans, who would have competed with them for resources. "To reach western Europe, modern humans would have had to cross the Middle East and the vast desert created by the eruption," says Costa. "It would have taken many hundreds of years for this land mass to recover."

For now, it is unclear how much damage Campi Flegrei's last major eruption did. But it is far from the only supervolcano on the planet. Earth's geological history is a catalogue of apocalyptic-looking volcanic events.

In south-west Colorado, there is a vast canyon approximately 100km wide and one kilometre deep. It serves as the legacy of one of the most explosive single events in the planet's history. La Garita Caldera was formed by an eruption nearly 28 million years ago, which expelled 5,000 cubic kilometres of molten rock.

Fortunately for us, the tectonic plates in the area have since rearranged themselves, so a repeat event is impossible. But approximately 75,000 years ago in Indonesia, an eruption of similar scale occurred, and the supervolcano responsible remains active.

Situated in the midst of a mountain range in northern Sumatra, the tranquillity and natural beauty of Lake Toba makes it a popular tourist location. But this lake is actually an enormous caldera, a footprint of the most extreme climatic event in human history.

The colossal scale of the eruption means that volcanic gases from Toba are thought to have been ejected through both hemispheres of the Earth's atmosphere, causing them to circulate all around the world

"The Toba eruption was frankly as big as any in the past tens of millions of years," says Clive Oppenheimer of the University of Cambridge, who studies some of Earth's biggest volcanos. "It's a particularly prominent one, because it's within the timeframe of modern humans, and the timing is quite critical, because it occurs around the time that humans come out of Africa and spread across Asia."

But exactly what effect this had on the human race has been the subject of much controversy.

Eruptions like those at Campi Flegrei may have helped wipe out Neanderthals in Europe (Credit: iStock)

In the 1990s, volcanologists discovered large ash deposits from Toba in marine sediments scattered across the Indian Ocean. The ash contained a chemical signature that could be traced back 75,000 years. Later studies found similar ash in the South China Sea, Arabian Sea and even in Lake Malawi, some 7,000km away from Toba.

The colossal scale of the eruption means that volcanic gases from Toba are thought to have been ejected through both hemispheres of the Earth's atmosphere, causing them to circulate all around the world. But exactly which gases were emitted from Toba, and in what quantities, is crucial to knowing its impact on the climate and understanding what happened next. So far back in time, this is not straightforward.

"There's an ice core in Greenland where they have a chemical record of how global temperatures went up and down over the past 125,000 years," says archaeologist Sacha Jones of the University of Cambridge, who has spent many years researching Toba. "Distinct layers of ice are laid down each year, and people have measured how much sulphate is in these layers. There is a large peak of sulphate, which seems to correspond to the timeframe of Toba."

Most of the ash from Toba is believed to have fallen in the ocean, where it would have had only minimal effects on land-dwelling species like humans

If the Toba eruption did indeed send vast quantities of sulphur dioxide around the world, scientists have predicted it may have sparked a volcanic winter, which blackened the skies and lasted several years. In line with this, geneticists studying patterns in human mitochondrial DNA in the early 1990s, identified what appears to be a population bottleneck, which occurred somewhere between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago. Many were quick to make the link to Toba.

But not everyone is so convinced.

"Over the last 10 or so years, people have become more sceptical that Toba almost killed off Homo sapiens," Oppenheimer says. "Magmas can dissolve and hold things like carbon dioxide and water and sulphur in different amounts, depending on the volcano. And chemical analysis of ash from Toba has found that its magma can't actually hold very much sulphur."

There is also something suspicious in the archaeological record. Indonesia, Malaysia and India are thought to have been blanketed in at least 5cm of ash from Toba, which undoubtedly affected vegetation and caused mass floods. Yet archaeological studies of ash deposits appear to show that humans were remarkably resilient to the environmental changes.

"The main signs of human activity around this time are stone tools of the Middle Palaeolithic period, such as points and scrapers," says Jones, who has excavated sites in the Jurreru Valley in Andhra Pradesh, India. "When we excavated deposits above, through and below the Toba ash layer, we didn't really see much change at all in these Stone Age technologies before and after the eruption, which suggests that it didn't really cause any mass extinction."

A supervolcano is likely to cause severe disruption to air travel (Credit: Getty Images)

 The key factor may be that most of the ash from Toba is believed to have fallen in the ocean, where it would have had only minimal effects on land-dwelling species like humans. However, Jones believes that the impact was still extremely severe for some communities.

“Toba was an incredibly large eruption, so it would have devastated certain areas, particularly in the immediate vicinity in Sumatra and elsewhere in Southeast Asia,” she says. “Yet in areas like India, which is further afield but was still blanketed in ash-fall, people were inhabiting a diverse range of habitats and microclimates, in forests, desert fringes, plains and hill ranges. This means that populations would have coped differently following Toba’s aftermath, suffering in some areas more than others."

But what of Toba's future? Geologists and geophysicists who study the volcano remain concerned about its magma chamber, which could be reawakened if the Sumatra fault line, which bisects the island and runs through Mount Toba, became active.

If it did, the only solution would be mass evacuation. But we do not even know how much warning we would receive.

If Yellowstone erupted again, some scientists think it would have more devastating consequences than Toba

Located underneath Yellowstone National Park in the US, the Yellowstone supervolcano is one of the most actively monitored places on the globe. A variety of instruments, including seismometers to detect chains of earthquakes, GPS sensors to record how the ground swells and shifts, and even satellite images to detect pressure changes in the magma chamber, are all used to look for any noticeable trends in behaviour.

Yellowstone has had three supereruptions in the past 2.1 million years. The first remains one of the largest of all time, producing 2,500 times the volume of ash as the 1980 Mount St Helens eruption. If Yellowstone erupted again, some scientists think it would have more devastating consequences than Toba, because the majority of the ash would fall on land rather than in the sea.

"The last eruption of Yellowstone would potentially have put ash across both American continents," says David Pyle at the University of Oxford. "If you take a continental land mass and you suddenly cover it with 10cm of volcanic ash, all the organic matter and trees will lose their leaves and probably die. Animals will take in chemicals which are toxic to them. The ground will suddenly be much brighter than before, so a lot of the incoming solar radiation might simply be reflected back into the atmosphere, resulting in a lengthy drought."

With water supplies clogged, electricity transmission lines failing and a complete disruption in ground transport, there would be an immediate crisis.

If Yellowstone's supervolcano exploded, it could devastate the West Coast of the US (Credit: iStock)

"If Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei or Toba exploded, there would be huge economic impact across the globe, because of the way the world economy works now," Oppenheimer says. "We saw that after the relatively small Icelandic eruption [Eyjafjallajökull] in 2010. It affected supply chains for Volkswagen, because parts were coming from Japan. Global aviation could be affected for decades. If a lot of sulphur dioxide was released, this could precipitate monsoons and climate shifts, which could affect global food security."

This would all be very problematic, but scientists are sceptical that a single explosive event like this could actually wipe out humanity.

Instead, volcanologists say that another type of volcanic event may pose a much greater threat to our existence.

Over the past 500 million years, all of the five largest mass extinctions in the fossil record have coincided with huge lava eruptions. These eruptions did not happen as single events, but as continuous outpourings going on for hundreds of thousands of years. They are known as flood lavas, and are caused by rising plumes of hot material from deep inside the Earth.

The most violent flood lava eruptions are thought to be associated with continental drift. Only 11 have taken place in the past 250 million years, each shaping vast mountain ranges, plateaus or volcanic formations. One such flood lava event took place 66 million years ago and created a huge expanse of volcanic rock called the Deccan Traps, in west-central India. These eruptions may have contributed to the mass extinction that took place at this time, by releasing cocktails of gases that slowly acidified the oceans and altered the climate.

While the world's volcanic hotspots are supremely well-monitored, we have no idea quite what to expect or how much warning we would receive

The trouble is, nobody knows when the next flood lava event will occur. "We expect another flood lava event sometime in the next 50 million years, but I don't think anyone's got any idea where and when," Pyle says.

Whether we are predicting the next supervolcano eruption or the next flood lava event, the problem is the same. The former has not been observed in recorded human history, while the last major flood lava eruptions occurred 10 million years ago in southern Canada, many millions of years before our species walked the planet. As such, while the world's volcanic hotspots are supremely well-monitored, we have no idea quite what to expect or how much warning we would receive before an event of such scale. Our tiny snapshot of monitoring time is dwarfed by volcanic cycles that can last millions of years.

We have no real idea where we are on these cycles. It is entirely possible that nothing will happen in our lifetimes, or even in the next hundred thousand years. There is only one certainty about these eruptions: they will, eventually, happen.

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Malacca Strait: How one volcano could trigger world chaos

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(Image credit: Alamy)

By Tom Ough18th January 2023

It's only a few hundred miles long, but when a natural disaster strikes near the Malacca Strait, the consequences could be global, writes Tom Ough.

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Every year, approximately 90,000 ships pass through the narrow sea lane of the Malacca Strait, which links the Indian Ocean to the Pacific. Their cargo – grain, crude oil, and every other commodity under the Sun – comprises an estimated 40% of global trade. Above these ships is one of the busiest air routes in the world, and below them, running along the seabed, is a dense array of submarine internet cables that keep the world online. 

Together, these factors make the Malacca Strait one of the most vital arteries of the global economy. It has been classified as a trade choke point in reports by the World Trade Organization, the US Energy Information Administration and Chatham House, the London-based foreign affairs think-tank.

All of which is to say: nice strait you've got there. Be a shame if something… happened to it.

Researchers are warning that it's only a matter of time before a natural disaster like an earthquake or volcano strikes the region – and when it does, we can expect global consequences.

Ship-tracking technology reveals just how many travel through the Malacca Strait (Credit: Alamy)

Disruption of key trade routes is a well-established problem, due to crime or human error. Piracy has long bedevilled the area, but the strait, cooperatively policed by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, is generally under control. Still, it is not uncommon for ships to collide here: 10 American sailors died as a result of the USS John McCain running into a Liberian-flagged tanker in 2017. But at 1.7 miles (2.7 km) at its narrowest, the strait is not slender enough to be blocked by an errant container ship in the way that the Suez Canal was by the 400m (1,312ft) Ever Given in 2021. 

The greatest menaces to the Malacca Strait, which separates the Malay Peninsula from the Indonesian island of Sumatra, lie in the natural world. Of the many intriguing maps of activity in the region, the most arresting is the one that collates the world's active volcanoes and recent earthquakes. Along the coast of Sumatra and the more southerly part of Java, following the course of the Sunda Trench, is a band of earthquake activity, and several volcanoes.

On Java, two volcanoes, Semeru and Merapi, have recently erupted. In the Sunda Strait, which separates Java from Sumatra, is Krakatau, and to the east is Tambora, whose eruption in 1815 caused crop failure as far afield as in Europe and the eastern United States.

The Tambora eruption was magnitude VEI7 in the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), on a logarithmic scale going up to VEI8. An event like 1815 might occur once or twice per millennium. But an eruption need not be of quite so high a magnitude to cause severe problems at a global choke point, especially if it happened at one of the volcanoes closer to the Malacca Strait.

You may also like:

Tonga eruption: Atlantic seafloor felt Pacific volcano megablast

How Taipei discovered an active volcano on its doorstep

The enigma of Europe's submerged behemoth

In 2018, researchers at the University of Cambridge's Centre for Risk Studies envisaged the effects of scenarios including a VEI6 eruption at Marapi. The eruption, they suggested, might produce ash clouds and fine tephra – fragments of rock ejected into the air – that waft across the Malacca Strait towards Singapore and Malaysia. The resultant damage to local infrastructure and supply chains, with aviation particularly badly affected, would combine with a global temperature drop of 1C to wipe an estimated $2.51tn (£2tn/€2.3tn) off global GDP over a five-year period. That figure dwarfs the estimated $5bn (£4bn/€4.6bn) that the VEI4 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, in Iceland, wiped from the global economy.

Marapi's last VEI4 eruption was 2010. A VEI6 eruption at Marapi is lower-probability: its return period, which is the estimated average time between eruptions, is 750 years. Yet the stakes are high enough to merit taking the prospect seriously, says Lara Mani, a volcanologist at the University of Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. And Marapi is one of several active volcanoes in the region. VEI4, VEI5 and VEI6 eruptions, says Mani, "can still really disrupt the strait. And the thing is, when a volcano starts, it doesn't tell you when it's going to stop."

If Semeru volcano in Indonesia produced a significant eruption, the disruption could be global (Credit: Alamy)

Let's imagine that one of those active volcanoes – such as Semeru on Java, Indonesia – produces an eruption that would qualify as a VEI5 or VEI6. Magma bursts from the crater. Ash belches into the sky. Tremors shake local towns. If the wind is south-westerly, all air traffic in the Malacca Strait is grounded. The ash falls onto the strait itself. On the surface of the sea, rafts of pumice accumulate. 

A large and relatively nearby earthquake would be a menace of similar scale. It could cause a tsunami to hit the strait, as the Boxing Day tsunami did in 2004. It would also cause turbidity currents – clouds of fast-moving, shaken-up sediment – that rip across the seabed. "That's typically what severs cables," Mani says. "In the Tonga eruption" – Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai's VEI5 eruption in January 2022 – "it was turbidity currents that severed the cables, causing a regional internet blackout. The turbidity currents also bury those cables, making their recovery even harder." (Read more about the scale and aftermath of this eruption from BBC News: "Tonga eruption: Atlantic seafloor felt Pacific volcano megablast".

On the upside, these natural disasters would cause less disruption to global shipping than the Ever Given did, says Tristan Smith of University College London. Smith, a shipping expert at his university's energy institute, says that ships' machinery should be able to cope with ash and that a tsunami is more dangerous to people on land, where the wave breaks and is at its biggest, than on sea. 

And presumably in the case of an eruption, an exclusion zone would be declared, forcing ships to take a different route. The rerouting of ships would have an effect on global trade, says Smith, but the system should ultimately be able to handle it. "If you have a ship that gets held up by three days, because it has to go the long way around Indonesia, all that ship needs to do is increase its speed by one or two knots and that delay is counteracted."

Trillions of dollars are transported through those cables every single day

There'd still be the matter of the grounded planes. The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull prompted a six-day airspace ban, resulting in disruption for millions of people. Worse, the severing of those cables would cause economic pandemonium. "Trillions of dollars are transported through those cables every single day," says Mani, "and that basically props up our financial markets. Our submarine cables are vulnerable, and there have been accidents over the years."

Mani highlights the breaking of several submarine internet cables by an earthquake near Taiwan in 2006, leaving a single cable connecting Hong Kong to the rest of the world. "It took 45 days to repair the other cables, and it was very lucky that one of them managed to survive. Imagine 45 days of nothing for Hong Kong and the broader region."

It would have been catastrophic, she continues, not only for Hong Kong but for the rest of the world. Hong Kong, like Singapore, is a financial hub whose effective disappearance would cause worldwide economic havoc. "We just don't have redundancy," says Mani of the cables: if something goes wrong, there aren't spares to pick up the slack. "And our satellites, in their current state, can only handle about 3% of global communication."

Nearby Westports Malaysia is one of the world's busiest ports (Credit: Getty Images)

So how can the strait be made less vulnerable? There is nothing we can do to stop earthquakes. The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and Unesco have set up early-warning systems for events such as tsunamis, and there is an existing service (the World-Wide Navigational Warning Service) that warns maritime shipping of meteorological or geological disasters. The Japanese coast guard is the designated coordinator of the area that includes the Strait of Malacca.

As for volcanoes, it might one day be possible to avert eruptions by manipulating the magma beneath them, but we are many years from that being a realistic possibility. For now, we must get better not only at monitoring volcanoes – even a few hours' notice of an eruption makes a big difference – but at spotting them. As Mani warns, Indonesia has "more volcanoes than you can shake a stick at, and many of them we" – the world's volcanologists – "have never properly looked at."

Elsewhere, the best preparation is diversification. More internet satellites would help. Local countries would also bolster their resilience by laying down new submarine cables that take a different route to the existing ones. China seems to be taking this approach to shipping. For years it has been trying to construct a canal across southern Thailand, obviating the need to go via the Strait of Malacca. The Thai Canal, as it is known, would reduce energy costs by providing a shortcut for crude oil transport, but it would also add significant resilience to Chinese shipping. Although the CCCP is thought to see this resilience in geopolitical terms, it might also turn out to be a useful insurance policy for global shipping. Finding ways of lessening their reliance on chokepoints like the Strait, says Ben Bland, director of Chatham House's Asia-Pacific programme, is "definitely something that's been on a lot of governments' minds in Asia".

The relevant government bodies of Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore did not respond to BBC Future's requests for comment, but we can assume that some amount of contingency planning will already be in place. Anyone who benefits from the Strait of Malacca – and if you are reading this, you are in that category – should hope that those plans turn out to be those that are never needed.

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VOLCANO

The enigma of Europe's submerged behemoth

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(Image credit: Getty Images)

By Alessia Franco and David Robson2nd August 2021

Off the southern coast of Italy, the largest active volcano in Europe lies hidden beneath the waves. Now scientists are mapping what would happen if it erupted.

W

When we think of Italy's volcanoes, we may assume that Etna, which overshadows Sicily, and Vesuvius, which famously destroyed Pompei, present the biggest danger to the peninsula's population and tourists. Yet there is another monster that could wreak havoc to the southern peninsula and its islands.

Its name is Marsili, and it is located around 175km (110 miles) south of Naples. With a height of 3,000m (9,800ft), and a base 70km long by 30km wide (43 by 19 miles), Marsili is a true giant. It is the largest active volcano in the whole of Europe. You won't ever see it, however, since its peak is 500m (1,640ft) under water, in the Tyrrhenian Sea.

Scientists have known of Marsili's existence for a century, but it is only within the last decade that they have started to investigate the dangers that Marsili might pose – and their findings are concerning. According to some recent models, its activity could potentially trigger an enormous tsunami, with a 30m-high (98ft) wave hitting Calabrian and Sicilian coasts.

Beneath the waves near the Aeolian islands, volcanic fissures bubble gases that force their way up through the Earth's crust (Credit: Getty Images)

Worse still, there would be next-to-no warning that the disaster was imminent – a fact that is leading some scientists to call for new technology to monitor the Mediterranean's movements.

An ancient menace

In terms of sheer size, Marsili cannot compete with Tamu Massif, beneath the north-west Pacific Ocean, which is around 4,460m (14,600ft) tall, and may house a complex of several separate volcanoes. Tamu Massif is extinct, however, whereas Marsili continues to rumble. It lies near the boundary of the Eurasian and African tectonic plates – movement that results in heightened geological activity.

In the worst-case scenario, a 20m-high (66ft) wave could crash into Sicily and Calabria within 20 minutes of a landslide

It is just one of many volcanos in an arc off the north coast of Sicily and the west coast of southern Italy. Some of these have formed land masses, the Aeolian islands – Stromboli, Lipari, Salina, Filicudi, Alicudi, Panarea and Vulcano, which was named after the Roman god of fire and which gave us the general name for all such fissures in the Earth's crust. And for every one of these visible islands, 10 volcanoes lurk below the sea.

According to Guido Ventura, a volcanologist at Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Marsili was born around a million years ago. Over the millennia, it came to amass 80 eruptive cones, spanning from the north-north-east to the south-south-west, alongside many fissures and fractures that could each vent lava.

The Aeolian islands are formed from a string of volcanoes in the Tyrrhenian Sea to the north of Sicily (Credit: Getty Images)

Thanks to its depth beneath the sea, this potential time-bomb lurking on south Italy's ocean floor was only discovered 100 years ago. "It was only in the early 20th Century that people started to map the sea basins," says Ventura. This was driven, in part, by the military's increasing use of submarines, and the world's new international communication systems, which required telegraph cables to be draped along the seabed. As a result of these efforts, cartographers finally identified the seamount in the 1920s. They named it after the polymath Luigi Ferdinando Marsili (1658-1730), who, among many other achievements, wrote the first treatise on hydrography.

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If knowledge of the existence of Marsili was a long time coming, the emergence of scientific research into its activity is even more recent – with detailed studies only appearing in the 2000s. According to these findings, the volcano's last eruption occurred a few thousand years ago. Today, its activity is limited to gentle rumblings, with gaseous emissions and low-energy tremors, Ventura says.

This does not, of course, preclude a more dramatic return to life in the future; Marsili may simply be dozing. If it were to erupt again, the lava and ashes produced by the explosion would be absorbed by the 500m (1,640ft) of water above the seamount; there's little risk that the fiery belch could ever reach the land or harm local populations.

Vulcano was named after the Roman god of fire, which has been adopted to become the generic name for all volcanoes (Credit: Alamy)

"The danger isn't the eruption, but the possible underwater landslides," says Ventura. If the seismic movements beforehand, or the explosion itself, led one of its flanks to collapse, it would displace such a large volume of water that it would trigger a tsunami.

The devastation of Naples

We now know that submarine landslides from the Aeolian arc of volcanoes could have contributed to past tragedies.

In 1343, for instance, the poet Petrarch described a terrible sea storm that devastated the Bay of Naples, leading to hundreds of deaths.

A recent study by Sara Levi at the State University of New York and colleagues suggests this may have been the result of a tsunami, originating on Stromboli. Analysing archaeological evidence from the volcano, the team found evidence of an ancient landslip,  resulting in a tsunami that reached the Calabrian coast.

A more recent eruption at Stromboli, in 2002, led to two tsunamis in 2002. The waves only affected the island itself, however, without reaching the mainland – and no one was killed by the surge.

A landslide on the slopes of Marsili could cause a 20m-high (66ft) wave travelling towards the coast of the Bay of Naples (Credit: Getty Images)

Unfortunately, we can't yet calculate the precise threat from Marsili. "We just don't have enough data," says Glauco Gallotti, a physicist at the University of Bologna. But there are good reasons to think it may pose a danger, he says. For one thing, the continuing hydrothermal activity could have weakened the volcano's rocks. What's more, recordings of microearthquakes shows that lava is still churning in the magma chamber, he says. For both these reasons, we should take the possibility seriously with further research.

In a paper published earlier this year, Gallotti's team considered five different scenarios, each examining the effects of different possible landslides. In the first couple of cases, the displacement of water was minimal – leading to a wave of just a few centimetres in height.

A collapse on the north-western flank, however, proved to be more serious – leading to a 3-4m high (10-13ft) wave reaching southern Campania, and a 2-3m high (6.6-10ft) wave hitting Calabria and Sicily within 30 minutes of the event. This is worth taking seriously, since a "scar" on Marsili's seamount suggests that a similar landslide may have occurred in the past. "And it could have generated waves between 1m and 3m high [3-10ft]," says Gallotti.

The worst-case scenario involved the collapse of the southern-central summit and the eastern flank. According to Gallotti's calculations, it would result in a 20m-high (66ft) wave reaching Sicily and Calabria within 20 minutes. Further research will be needed to assess the probability that this will occur, he emphasises. "But we can't [yet] rule out the possibility."

If an eruption does happen, the human cost may depend on the time of year, and whether or not the tsunami arrived in the peak of the tourist season. "The south of Italy is vastly populated in the summer," Gallotti says. The elevation of Italy's coastline means that people should be safe if they were around one kilometre inland, he estimates.

Seismic sisters

Ventura agrees that these risks should be explored. "It's clear that Marsili needs to be monitored for possible instabilities on its flanks."

As the events at Stromboli had shown, Marsili may be the biggest volcano in Europe, but its sisters could also pose significant threats. "It's worth remembering that in the Tyrrhenian Sea, as in the Strait of Sicily, there are at least 70 underwater volcanoes, whose story, in some cases, is totally unknown," says Ventura.

The damage caused by a tsunami caused by a collapse of Marsili would depend on whether it coincided with peak tourist season (Credit: Alamy)

Of particular concern is the Palinuro volcano, located 65km (40 miles) off the coast of Cilento. According to Gallotti, recent studies show that the volcanic complex has a 150m-layer (490ft) of loose material that could be displaced with seismic movements. Ideally, future surveys will provide further details of that structure and its chances of collapse.

If the risk is significant, the Italian government may need to take action to pre-empt the potential disaster. At the moment, there is no good monitoring system to warn Italian people of an impending tsunami. But it need not be too difficult to build, Gallotti says. He points out that a network of buoys, fitted with motion sensors, should be able to detect characteristic differences in the sea's movements that signal the emergence of a tsunami. This could send an automatic SMS alert to people in the areas affected – allowing them to reach higher ground before the tsunami hit.

Ventura suggests it may also be possible to monitor the movements of the volcano itself. "In the last 40 years the technology for monitoring active volcanoes has made huge strides," he says.

In addition to an early warning system, Gallotti would also like to see greater awareness of the potential danger – among the public and policy makers. As evidence, he cites a paper by Teresita Gravina, at Guglielmo Marconi University, Nicola Mari at the University of Glasgow, and colleagues, which recently assessed people's risk perception in southern Italy.

In general, people were aware that tsunamis could occur in the area, but their knowledge was hazy. When asked about the most recent events, for example, only 3.3% of the people who answered mentioned the 2002 tsunami at Stromboli, for instance. Most believed themselves to be ill-informed about the events, with limited knowledge of the tsunami's potential causes or the best ways to act, were another to occur.

"This is quite serious," Gravina and Mari told BBC Future in an email. "It's probably due to the fact that in Italy there's little communication on these subjects. To know how a seismic phenomenon, or a tsunami, forms is very important, because you can assess completely different scenarios and the different behaviours that would be necessary to avoid the danger." Any attempts to design an effective early warning system would need to consider the behaviours of the different communities, they say. (We've already seen this with Covid-19 – two populations can react to exactly same information in very different ways.)

There have been some positive steps. A recent project in Salerno, organised by Italy's Civil Protection Department, attempted to simulate the emergency caused by a tsunami. "This could have increased their awareness of the risk," Gravina and Mari say. But for most people, the danger of an underwater landslide, caused by a submarine volcano, is still little understood – meaning that much more work is needed to educate people of the possibility.

The danger of a tsunami may seem remote – but should it come to pass, a little knowledge could help save thousands of lives.

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Alessia Franco is an author and a journalist focusing on history, culture, society, storytelling and its effects on people. She is @amasognacredi on Twitter

David Robson is the author of The Intelligence Trap: Why Smart People Make Dumb Mistakes. His next book is The Expectation Effect: How Your Mindset Can Change Your Life, to be published in early 2022. He is @d_a_robson on Twitter

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APOCALYPSE WEEK | VOLCANO

Nasa’s ambitious plan to save Earth from a supervolcano

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By David Cox17th August 2017

With an eruption brewing, it may be the only way to prevent the extinction of the human race.

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Lying beneath the tranquil settings of Yellowstone National Park in the US lies an enormous magma chamber. It’s responsible for the geysers and hot springs that define the area, but for scientists at Nasa, it’s also one of the greatest natural threats to human civilisation as we know it: a potential supervolcano.

Following an article we published about supervolcanoes last month, a group of Nasa researchers got in touch to share a report previously unseen outside the space agency about the threat – and what could be done about it.

“I was a member of the Nasa Advisory Council on Planetary Defense which studied ways for Nasa to defend the planet from asteroids and comets,” explains Brian Wilcox of Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) at the California Institute of Technology. “I came to the conclusion during that study that the supervolcano threat is substantially greater than the asteroid or comet threat.”

Astronauts on the International Space Station get a striking view when a volcano erupts (Credit: Nasa/Getty Images)

READ MORE:

Would a supervolcano wipe us out?

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The atomic bomb too big to use

There are around 20 known supervolcanoes on Earth, with major eruptions occurring on average once every 100,000 years. One of the greatest threats an eruption may pose is thought to be starvation, with a prolonged volcanic winter potentially prohibiting civilisation from having enough food for the current population. In 2012, the United Nations estimated that food reserves worldwide would last 74 days.

When Nasa scientists came to consider the problem, they found that the most logical solution could simply be to cool a supervolcano down. A volcano the size of Yellowstone is essentially a gigantic heat generator, equivalent to six industrial power plants. Yellowstone currently leaks about 60-70% of the heat coming up from below into the atmosphere, via water which seeps into the magma chamber through cracks. The remainder builds up inside the magma, enabling it to dissolve more and more volatile gases and surrounding rocks. Once this heat reaches a certain threshold, then an explosive eruption is inevitable.

I came to the conclusion that the supervolcano threat is substantially greater than the asteroid or comet threat – Brian Wilcox, Nasa

But if more of the heat could be extracted, then the supervolcano would never erupt. Nasa estimates that if a 35% increase in heat transfer could be achieved from its magma chamber, Yellowstone would no longer pose a threat. The only question is how?

One possibility is to simply increase the amount of water in the supervolcano. But from a practical perspective, it would likely be impossible to convince politicians to sanction such an initiative.

“Building a big aqueduct uphill into a mountainous region would be both costly and difficult, and people don’t want their water spent that way,” Wilcox says. “People are desperate for water all over the world and so a major infrastructure project, where the only way the water is used is to cool down a supervolcano, would be very controversial.”

If a supervolcano erupts, it will be many, many times more powerful than this Indonesian volcano (Credit: Getty Images)

Instead Nasa have conceived a very different plan. They believe the most viable solution could be to drill up to 10km down into the supervolcano, and pump down water at high pressure. The circulating water would return at a temperature of around 350C (662F), thus slowly day by day extracting heat from the volcano. And while such a project would come at an estimated cost of around $3.46bn (£2.69bn), it comes with an enticing catch which could convince politicians to make the investment.

“Yellowstone currently leaks around 6GW in heat,” Wilcox says. “Through drilling in this way, it could be used to create a geothermal plant, which generates electric power at extremely competitive prices of around $0.10/kWh. You would have to give the geothermal companies incentives to drill somewhat deeper and use hotter water than they usually would, but you would pay back your initial investment, and get electricity which can power the surrounding area for a period of potentially tens of thousands of years.

APOCALYPSE WEEK

The fear and the fascination of doomsday

To coincide with the US solar eclipse on 21 August, BBC Future is running a special series about the end of the world. For other stories, check back here, or follow us on Facebook and Twitter.

And the long-term benefit is that you prevent a future supervolcano eruption which would devastate humanity.”

But drilling into a supervolcano does not come without certain risks. Namely triggering the eruption you’re intending to prevent.

“The most important thing with this is to do no harm,” Wilcox says. “If you drill into the top of the magma chamber and try and cool it from there, this would be very risky. This could make the cap over the magma chamber more brittle and prone to fracture. And you might trigger the release of harmful volatile gases in the magma at the top of the chamber which would otherwise not be released.”

Mt Etna erupting, as viewed from space; further north near Naples is the supervolcano Campi Flegrei (Credit: Getty Images)

Instead, the idea is to drill in from the supervolcano from the lower sides, starting outside the boundaries of Yellowstone National Park, and extracting the heat from the underside of the magma chamber. “This way you’re preventing the heat coming up from below from ever reaching the top of the chamber which is where the real threat arises,” Wilcox says.

Those who instigate the project will never see it to completion, or even have an idea whether it might be successful

However those who instigate such a project will never see it to completion, or even have an idea whether it might be successful within their lifetime. Cooling Yellowstone in this manner would happen at a rate of one metre a year, taking of the order of tens of thousands of years until just cold rock was left. Although Yellowstone’s magma chamber would not need to be frozen solid to reach the point where it no longer posed a threat, there would be no guarantee that the endeavour would ultimately be successful for at least hundreds and possibly thousands of years.  

But to prevent a catastrophe, such long-term thinking and planning may be the only choice. “With a project like this, you’d start the process and the main ongoing benefit you’d see in everyday terms is this new supply of electrical power,” Wilcox says.

Yellowstone harbours a giant magma chamber that will blow one day if we don't act (Credit: iStock)

Such a plan could be potentially applied to every active supervolcano on the planet, and Nasa’s scientists are hoping that their blueprints will encourage more practical scientific discussion and debate for tackling the threat.

“When people first considered the idea of defending the Earth from an asteroid impact, they reacted in a similar way to the supervolcano threat,” Wilcox says. “People thought, ‘As puny as we are, how can humans possibly prevent an asteroid from hitting the Earth.’ Well, it turns out if you engineer something which pushes very slightly for a very long time, you can make the asteroid miss the Earth. So the problem turns out to be easier than people think. In both cases it requires the scientific community to invest brain power and you have to start early. But Yellowstone explodes roughly every 600,000 years, and it is about 600,000 years since it last exploded, which should cause us to sit up and take notice.” 

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20170724-would-a-supervolcano-eruption-wipe-us-out

[zod 1628]

De ce nu este buna linistea si tacerea planetei Pamant?! 

Conform legilor fizicii, atunci cand un sistem acumuleaza energie, acesta este linistit pana explodeaza cedand energia acumulata. 

Asadar traim intr-o aparenta liniste de cateva secole ori chiar milenii, insa chiar acest fapt ar putea ascunde in fapt o mare acumulare de energie telurica, iar fazele eliberarii par sa inceapa astazi! 

Pe langa supervulcani si soarele ne poate face mari surprize inghetand scutul magnetic planetar si aruncand umanitatea a nu stiu a cata oara intr-un nou ev intunecat non-electric. 

Probabil ca marile structuri de piatra asemenea piramidelor chiar erau uriase baterii electrice pe cand Pamantul nu avea camp magnetic. 

[The Unknown 15044]

Chiar nu se poate opri distrugerea omenirii de vulcane si alte calamitati naturale ... tunami, potop, alunecari de teren, tornado, furtuni tropicale, tantari otravitori. etc.???

[zod 1628]

In momentul de fata doar o readaptare! 

Din pacate lacomia si coruptia ne-a tinut pe loc intr-un continum secol XX. 

Daca liderii ar fi fost cat de cat intelepti, atunci s-ar fi gandit cat de cat la viitor. 

Astazi am fi fost o civilizatie multi-planetara, iar pe Pamant am fi castigat o mobilitate uriasa prin orasele plutitoare si prin locuintele mobile trans-atmosferice. 

Sistemul solar ar fi fost plin de orase-submerse si sub-glaciare... 

Chiar daca propulsia warp-superluminica se pare ca a fost o alta pacaleala a diversionismului stiintific dirijat de la centru precum si fuziunea nucleara in varianta oficiala, totusi existau propulsoare hibride capabile sa urce umanitatea pe alte planete ori chiar la stele. 

PS: Pe alt topic explicam perspectivele tehartozei numita si micoza fiind descoperita initial in ciuperci. 

Acest dizaharid este secretul hibernarii colonistilor astrali care vor strabate decenii ori chiar secole pana in Alfa Centauri ori Sirius. 

 

Editat Iunie 19, 2023 de zod

[The Unknown 15044]

La ce cursuri trebuie sa ma inscriu sa te inteleg???   

Eu nu sint atat de calificata in materia asta si pe moment nici chef n-am sa ma informez de stiinte exacte.

Atat mi-e foarte clar, prin ce am trecut in secolul trecut in Romania!!!

[zod 1628]

Spuneam ca ne sunt ascunse mai multe tehnologii si substante miraculoase, lucruri care ar face ca oamenii sa nu mai aiba handicapuri, sa nu mai moara ireversibil si chiar sa se inbolnaveasca mai greu. 

De ce sa protezam oamenii cand celulele hepatice au gena necesara producerii de celule stem care pot duplica orice parte a corpului pornind de la un mugure?! 

De ce lasam oamenii sa moara cand i-am putea pastra in gel de trehaloza la temperatura camerei, apoi i-am putea repara, iar la urma resuscita?! 

 

 

Editat Iunie 20, 2023 de zod