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Putin's Compromises at the NATO summit

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http://putinfreakshow.blogspot.com/2008/04...ato-summit.html

 

Putin's Compromises at the NATO summit

 

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As expected, NATO's MAP (Membership Action Plan) has been delayed for Ukraine and Georgia. Croatia and Albania got green NATO light, receiving the MAP, while Macedonia hasn't got it yet.

 

In Poland and the Czech Republic only passive military equipment will be installed, such as radars, but not (Patriot) anti-ballistic missiles, decision which will persuade Russia to change its mind on quitting the CFE Treaty:

 

"Washington plans to station components of its missile defense shield in Eastern Europe. Poland will host ten interceptors and the Czech Republic will have a radar station. The first interceptor could be put into airborne alert in Europe already by 2011, while the full-scale deployment of ten interceptors is to be completed by 2013." (Kommersant)

 

In return, Putin has promised to ease the US' difficulties in Afghanistan by various means, topic which I don't see such important, since Iraq and Afghanistan will remain open battlefields.

 

Ukraine is on its way out of the Russian orbite though, since "Ukraine's nuclear power company Energoatom signed a five-year contract with U.S.-based Westinghouse Electric Company to provide nuclear fuel to three Ukrainian reactors after 2020" (RIA Novosti).

 

Ukraine won't host military bases though, as it is prohibited by the constitution.

 

The Black Sea Fleet Treaty and the Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership Treaty between Russia and Ukraine further complicate the future status of Ukraine.

 

At the bilateral Bush-Putin summit in Sochi, in exchange for Kosovo's independence, Putin will seek to gain independence for Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdniester and possibly even for Nagorno-Karaback, breakaway republics where Russia holds important military facilities, although the independence of these internationally not recognised states won't be gained over night, but probably it will go hand in hand with Georgia and Ukraine's NATO integration.

 

Mirroring Georgia's increasing pro-NATO status, Venezuela is still in the cards, stuffed with more Russian military hardware.

 

Since the US' planned shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, Georgia and Ukraine's future integration in NATO, as well as the fate of these breakaway provinces are all connected to the CFE Treaty one way or another, a way for bypassing the CFE treaty is sought, though by peaceful means ("The Sochi talks are seen as a chance to forge a concrete agreement on political differences over issues such as missile defence and the CFE treaty" (Russia Today)) . We'll see what will be achieved there.

 

The fact that Putin insisted to have a bilateral talk with the Romanian president is a good sign. Hopefully, after the discussion held in Bucharest, the US' base in Romania will lose its apetite for growing and Romania will eventually display a more balanced external policy, at least in the upcoming future.

 

Conclusion: Practically, as usual, Putin just seeks to gain some more time.

 

~by Xerona

 

 

See quotes and references at the link above.

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Iran again in the spotlight

 

http://putinfreakshow.blogspot.com/2008/04...-spotlight.html

 

Whether in the end Iran will be sacrificed to fuel countries hostile to Russia, such as Romania (in exchange for a degree of Russia's rapprochment towards Europe), or not, Putin has no intentions to leave Iran from his nuclear hands.

 

Putin seems to have proposed to Bush once again the Iran-European scheme, but Putin presented to Bush also the variant when the US will again reject his proposals.

 

In this case Iran will turn its back to Europe and will go for China and India.

 

But, in order to achieve any of the above-mentioned plans, Putin must have the Russian nuclear facilities in Iran secured officially.

 

So, if anything, Russia seems keen to gain its legal nuclear ownership of Iran.

 

Putin has lost enough in Europe. Does he intend to ever regain what he lost there? This is another good question.

 

If Iran will fuel at some point countries hostile to Russia, he might demand in return the turn to the left of some European states.

 

The talks with Bush seem to go in circles. Since the talks on Iran resumed, it's possible that the talks on Europe resumed as well.

 

Putin might've never really dropped his European plan.

 

How he will eventually try to restore it, it's not easy to say, but since Nabucco and other pipelines which are now in the mere project stage will be functional in years from now on, a long term plan might've been discussed also for Europe, at the last Putin-Bush meeting in Sochi.

 

See the interesting articles related to the topic:

 

~Vera

 

Iran and Russia need not fight for gas market

 

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080414/105045260.html

 

Is Iran a nuclear power?

 

http://en.rian.ru/analysis/20080416/105251460.html

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